← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5087226
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 22.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability22.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 24.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (12.2%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,552
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,465 / $929
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.05
RSI (14, hourly)57.5
Realized vol 7d1.63pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 42d 5h.
Time to resolve42d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.