← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5087228
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 34.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability34.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.3%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,426
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,466 / $266
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.83
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.