← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5141816
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 9.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid65.0¢ / 66.0¢ / 65.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+9.00pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$81,444
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,418 / $921
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)8
Liquidity score50.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.21
RSI (14, hourly)67.4
Realized vol 7d1.77pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.