← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5151624
Will Person N be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.0%, flat over 24h, on a 100.0¢ spread.
Implied probability0.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.0¢ / 100.0¢ / 0.0¢
Spread100.0¢ (200.0%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance50% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 132d 5h.
Time to resolve132d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Order book unavailable.
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.