← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5154348
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.2%, up 2.2pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability6.2%
Bid / ask / mid7.2¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.1¢
Spread1.8¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+2.15pt
Change 7d+4.30pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$145 / $56
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.16
RSI (14, hourly)57.8
Realized vol 7d1.29pt
Change 1h+0.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 100d 0h.
Time to resolve100d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.