← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5154351
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (12.5%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$939
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$81 / $162
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.24
RSI (14, hourly)53.3
Realized vol 7d1.48pt
Change 1h-1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 100d 0h.
Time to resolve100d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.