← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5154352
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 53.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid52.0¢ / 53.0¢ / 52.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,777
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,593 / $542
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.03
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 100d 0h.
Time to resolve100d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.