← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5166881
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.9%, down 9.3pt over 24h, on a 3.7¢ spread.
Implied probability14.9%
Bid / ask / mid12.6¢ / 16.3¢ / 14.4¢
Spread3.7¢ (25.6%)
Change 24h-9.25pt
Change 7d-0.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 32/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,286
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$40 / $69
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.01
RSI (14, hourly)43.0
Realized vol 7d2.80pt
Change 1h+0.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.