← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5166882
Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.8%, up 12.9pt over 24h, on a 4.6¢ spread.
Implied probability31.8%
Bid / ask / mid38.0¢ / 42.6¢ / 40.3¢
Spread4.6¢ (11.4%)
Change 24h+12.90pt
Change 7d+21.75pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 27/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,204
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$84 / $316
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.01
RSI (14, hourly)83.1
Realized vol 7d3.04pt
Change 1h+7.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.