← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5166886
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.4%, up 2.2pt over 24h, on a 3.2¢ spread.
Implied probability5.4%
Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 4.5¢ / 2.9¢
Spread3.2¢ (110.3%)
Change 24h+2.20pt
Change 7d-1.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 34/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$482
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $47
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score34.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.46
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.51pt
Change 1h-0.95pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.