← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5166887
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, up 27.6pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.6¢ / 50.7¢ / 49.6¢
Spread2.1¢ (4.2%)
Change 24h+27.60pt
Change 7d+39.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,633
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$218 / $699
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 98 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.94
RSI (14, hourly)97.7
Realized vol 7d2.68pt
Change 1h+11.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.