← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5166888
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 44.4%, down 13.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability44.4%
Bid / ask / mid34.2¢ / 34.3¢ / 34.3¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h-13.10pt
Change 7d-0.75pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$126
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$165 / $252
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.19
RSI (14, hourly)0.4
Realized vol 7d1.90pt
Change 1h-9.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.