← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5167187
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.0%, up 9.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability96.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 87.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h+9.00pt
Change 7d+12.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$397
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$84 / $56
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.94
RSI (14, hourly)55.4
Realized vol 7d2.82pt
Change 1h-3.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.