← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5167197
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 84.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+44.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 26% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$48
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$36 / $106
Imbalance26% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.37
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d4.21pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.