← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5167199
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid74.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 78.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (10.3%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$52
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16 / $17
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.44
RSI (14, hourly)48.5
Realized vol 7d4.19pt
Change 1h-6.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.