← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5167210
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 72.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability72.0%
Bid / ask / mid64.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 64.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+15.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$82,266
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,822 / $112
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)8
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.13
RSI (14, hourly)52.9
Realized vol 7d1.81pt
Change 1h+2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 10d 2h.
Time to resolve10d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.