← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5170739
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h-6.00pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20,734
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,486 / $11,141
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score53.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.49
RSI (14, hourly)59.3
Realized vol 7d3.16pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.