← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5170826
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.2%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 6.3¢ spread.
Implied probability8.2%
Bid / ask / mid2.7¢ / 9.0¢ / 5.9¢
Spread6.3¢ (107.7%)
Change 24h-0.25pt
Change 7d+1.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 19/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$38 / $126
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score18.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.58
RSI (14, hourly)61.7
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.