← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5177618
Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.5%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability98.5%
Bid / ask / mid96.2¢ / 98.2¢ / 97.2¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h+0.70pt
Change 7d+35.70pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 62% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$2,352
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,718 / $11,701
Imbalance62% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.05
RSI (14, hourly)57.2
Realized vol 7d2.04pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.