← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5180406
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.0%, up 9.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability84.0%
Bid / ask / mid82.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 83.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+9.00pt
Change 7d-9.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,355
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$275 / $1,529
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.49
RSI (14, hourly)55.6
Realized vol 7d4.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.