← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5180413
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.3%, up 9.5pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability89.3%
Bid / ask / mid88.3¢ / 89.0¢ / 88.6¢
Spread0.7¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+9.55pt
Change 7d-4.05pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,831
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$677 / $21,561
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.80
RSI (14, hourly)59.1
Realized vol 7d2.48pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.