← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5180509
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.6%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.6%
Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 0.6¢ / 0.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-0.60pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$75,857
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$239 / $3,735
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score51.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.87
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (60)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.