← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5191217
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 35.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$414
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$300 / $245
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.38
RSI (14, hourly)70.6
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 0h.
Time to resolve73d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.