← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5191218
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 38.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$221
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$316 / $446
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.01
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 0h.
Time to resolve73d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.