← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194712
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability25.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 25.2¢ / 25.1¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+8.05pt
Change 7d+12.05pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,770
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$262 / $190
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 1 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.07
RSI (14, hourly)0.6
Realized vol 7d2.46pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 83d 5h.
Time to resolve83d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.