← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194813
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, down 24.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid29.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.7%)
Change 24h-24.00pt
Change 7d+13.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$244
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9 / $63
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.42
RSI (14, hourly)17.4
Realized vol 7d4.51pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.