← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194814
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 29.0%, down 15.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (30.3%)
Change 24h-15.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$231
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $8
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.37
RSI (14, hourly)21.3
Realized vol 7d4.22pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.