← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194864
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.0%, down 23.0pt over 24h, on a 11.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.0%
Bid / ask / mid47.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 52.5¢
Spread11.0¢ (21.0%)
Change 24h-23.00pt
Change 7d-4.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$350
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.07
RSI (14, hourly)31.4
Realized vol 7d4.43pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.