← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5194866
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 12.5pt over 24h, on a 34.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 30.0¢
Spread34.0¢ (113.3%)
Change 24h-12.50pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$153
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.05
RSI (14, hourly)46.8
Realized vol 7d6.33pt
Change 1h-7.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.