← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5204868
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of December 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 85.0¢ / 84.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 66% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$35
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$399 / $390
Imbalance66% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.