← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5204869
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid69.0¢ / 77.0¢ / 73.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (11.0%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 46% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$97
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$32 / $38
Imbalance46% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.27
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.