← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5204870
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 24.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 67.0¢
Spread24.0¢ (35.8%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 14 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.05
RSI (14, hourly)14.3
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.