← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5211633
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.3%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 4.5¢ spread.
Implied probability6.3%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 8.5¢ / 6.3¢
Spread4.5¢ (72.0%)
Change 24h-1.05pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 28/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$65
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$60 / $83
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score27.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 4 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.68
RSI (14, hourly)4.3
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 17d 13h.
Time to resolve17d 13h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.