← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5211634
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 27.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$113
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$54 / $147
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 15 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)15.4
Realized vol 7d0.61pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 17d 13h.
Time to resolve17d 13h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.