← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5211635
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 44.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability44.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 44.0¢ / 42.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (7.1%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$633
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$123 / $1,548
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.35
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 17d 13h.
Time to resolve17d 13h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.