← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5324614
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$254
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,126 / $1,062
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.39
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 163d 4h.
Time to resolve163d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.