← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5324615
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability41.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.8%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$463
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,051 / $1,135
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.81
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.22pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.