← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5329576
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 59.0%, down 18.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability59.0%
Bid / ask / mid61.0¢ / 62.0¢ / 61.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h-18.50pt
Change 7d-22.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,777
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$318 / $27,427
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score58.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.62
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d2.42pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.