← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5339880
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.3%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability7.3%
Bid / ask / mid2.6¢ / 4.0¢ / 3.3¢
Spread1.4¢ (42.4%)
Change 24h-0.90pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$737
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$38 / $774
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.70
RSI (14, hourly)29.3
Realized vol 7d0.49pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.