← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5340070
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 25.0¢ / 24.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.1%)
Change 24h-7.00pt
Change 7d-25.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$69,470
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,762 / $5,373
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score51.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.35
RSI (14, hourly)36.4
Realized vol 7d1.32pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.