← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5340071
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.0%, up 7.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability45.0%
Bid / ask / mid46.0¢ / 48.0¢ / 47.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h+7.00pt
Change 7d+22.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50,012
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,144 / $9,224
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score48.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 89 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.58
RSI (14, hourly)89.5
Realized vol 7d1.25pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 4h.
Time to resolve6d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.