← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5364738
Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.5%, up 11.1pt over 24h, on a 5.7¢ spread.
Implied probability10.5%
Bid / ask / mid18.2¢ / 23.9¢ / 21.1¢
Spread5.7¢ (27.1%)
Change 24h+11.10pt
Change 7d+15.95pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 22/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,552
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16 / $14
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score21.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 94 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.61
RSI (14, hourly)94.4
Realized vol 7d1.04pt
Change 1h+2.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 15h.
Time to resolve15d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.