← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5364739
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 29.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 14.0¢ spread.
Implied probability29.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 40.0¢
Spread14.0¢ (35.0%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$123
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.28
RSI (14, hourly)61.0
Realized vol 7d1.50pt
Change 1h+4.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 15h.
Time to resolve15d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.