← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5364740
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.6%, up 6.1pt over 24h, on a 3.3¢ spread.
Implied probability18.6%
Bid / ask / mid18.6¢ / 21.9¢ / 20.3¢
Spread3.3¢ (16.3%)
Change 24h+6.10pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 34/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$35
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$83 / $45
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.42
RSI (14, hourly)52.1
Realized vol 7d2.28pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 15h.
Time to resolve15d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.