← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5387540
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-10-19?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (12.5%)
Change 24h-4.50pt
Change 7d-7.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,440
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,979 / $1,953
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 35 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.88
RSI (14, hourly)34.6
Realized vol 7d0.60pt
Change 1h-4.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.