← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5407561
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.0%, up 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability56.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+8.00pt
Change 7d-11.00pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$27,239
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,511 / $12,011
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score55.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.55
RSI (14, hourly)18.4
Realized vol 7d3.48pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 5h.
Time to resolve12d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.