← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5407572
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-24.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,196
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,359 / $4,405
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.95
RSI (14, hourly)26.1
Realized vol 7d3.58pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.