← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5409723
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 15.0¢ spread.
Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread15.0¢ (176.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-31.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.57
RSI (14, hourly)44.0
Realized vol 7d2.68pt
Change 1h+2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 19h.
Time to resolve0d 19h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.