← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5447182
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid77.0¢ / 78.0¢ / 77.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$170,849
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,285 / $633,416
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)11
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.42
RSI (14, hourly)49.3
Realized vol 7d3.14pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.