← Explore · Polymarket · Market 5475240
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (47.6%)
Change 24h-6.00pt
Change 7d-7.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20,113
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$238 / $153
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score25.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)44.7
Realized vol 7d2.49pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 4h.
Time to resolve0d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.